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Indonesia has witnessed a significant decline in deforestation since 2015-2016, marking a significant shift in land-use trends. The researchers Arild Angelsen, Ahmad Dermawan, and Malte Ladewig of NMBU have used a combination of spatial data analysis, stakeholder interviews, and statistical models to understand the nature and causes of the decline. Deforestation has decreased by at least 50% since 2016, though estimates vary between 40% and 90% depending on the dataset used and time period considered.
Key Findings
Deforestation Trends by Region and Commodity
The decline is most pronounced in Kalimantan and Sumatra, with Riau, South Sumatra, and Central Kalimantan as the stand-out provinces.
Palmwood plantations remains the leading driver of deforestation, though its share has dropped from 55% (2010-2017) to 46% (2018-2022), particularly in Kalimantan.
Mining, particularly for coal and nickel, is emerging as a major driver, especially in Sulawesi, where it accounted for 30% of deforestation in 2021-2022.
Drivers Behind the Decline
Government Policies: Public policies, including the 2011 moratorium on new permits for primary forests and peatlands, have played a central role. Enhanced fire management following the 2015 fires and improved sectoral coordination have also contributed.
Private Sector Regulation: Corporate pledges and certification efforts, particularly in palm oil, have shown some promise. However, compliance issues persist, especially in the pulp and mining sectors.
Civil Society Influence: NGOs and civil society organizations (CSOs) have played a crucial watchdog role, ensuring better implementation of public and private regulations.
Stable Commodity Prices: The relatively stable prices of key deforestation-linked commodities from 2016-2020 helped support conservation policies.
Forest Scarcity: Statistical analysis suggests that up to a third of the decline in deforestation is linked to the ‘forest transition’ phenomenon: when forest cover falls below ca. 40%, deforestation rates tend to drop.
Future Challenges and Recommendations
Anticipate New Hotspots: Future deforestation threats are shifting eastward. Mining is expanding in Sulawesi, while oil palm, pulpwood plantations, and food estates are emerging in Papua.
Strengthen Incentives for High-Forest, Low-Deforestation Areas: Mechanisms are needed to encourage conservation in regions that still have significant forest cover.
Address Emerging Deforestation Risks: While palm oil remains dominant, mining and pulp plantations are gaining ground as key drivers.
Balance Energy Transition with Forest Conservation: The global push for renewable energy and minerals paradoxically threatens Indonesia’s forests, requiring policymakers to balance these trade-offs.
Enhance CSO Monitoring: Civil society organizations play a vital role in ensuring effective implementation of policies and corporate commitments.
Improve Data Collection on Agricultural Commodities: Better insights are needed into the growing role of non-palm agricultural drivers such as cocoa, coconut, and coffee.
Ensure Transparency in Data Usage: Discrepancies in deforestation data highlight the need for greater transparency and consistency in definitions and methodologies.
Conclusion
Indonesia's declining deforestation is a positive development, driven largely by government action, forest scarcity effects, and civil society engagement. However, continued vigilance is necessary to counter new and evolving threats. Effective policies, responsible corporate actions, and improved data transparency will be key in ensuring the sustainability of Indonesia’s forests for future generations.